‘Amelia was extrovert, confident. Other than the swimming and her looks, she was a very different girl from Caroline Devine.’
‘So we can deduce that his attraction to Caroline became stronger because of the type of girl she was. Like Amelia, she was athletic. The assailant was physically fit, which makes sense, similar attributes. He was looking for someone not unlike himself. But unlike Amelia, who may have come across as overconfident, Caroline appeared vulnerable and sensitive. She was a listener, wanted to help others, and her appreciation for books could have given her more depth in his eyes.’
‘Where’s this leading, Kate?’
‘Well, if the killings are linked to the Tuscan burial, it means the key to our killer’s motivational needs began early, sometime in childhood.’
‘So?’
‘So we now have a possible third victim, Silvia Vaccaro.’
‘You’re not saying he killed her too? As you said, he could only have been a child.’
‘It doesn’t matter right now who killed her, what matters is that if I’m right, irrespective of the catalyst behind his current killing spree, he may well be seeking to turn back time, and Silvia is the key to all of this.’
‘Keep going, Kate.’
‘We know Caroline was driven, an excellent student according to her mother, ambitious, wanting to prove herself.’
‘I’m still not getting you.’
‘His progression, O’Connor – all the time, he is looking for the ideal girl. If he is recreating the Tuscan burial, he could well be trying to replace Silvia, or his memory of her – but we must study the victim’s behaviour too, it is just as important as studying the killer’s. He befriended Amelia, was drawn to her physically, but soon lost interest, her personality was unsuitable. Then there was Caroline; the more he got to know her, the more he studied her, the more emotionally connected to her he became, the more her behaviour convinced him it was the right time to make his move. It was a calculated risk, but one he was prepared to take. When Caroline reacted badly, he would have blamed her because he believed she’d failed him. He had taken risks for her, and she had let him down.’
‘It still doesn’t answer who will be next.’
‘No, it doesn’t, but he will move on. Whatever the reason for him crossing the line, he is not going to stop now, but next time he will change things, just like he changed from Amelia to Caroline.’
‘Change how?’
‘It could be someone older.’
‘Older?’
‘Well think about it. His selection process is adapting. Initially it was looks and general interests, and then the girl’s personality traits became the decision-maker. Things turning out badly with Caroline means he won’t make the same mistake again. You have to remember, O’Connor, in this man’s eyes everything he is doing makes absolute sense. The girls are failing him, not the other way around. If he’s looking for a Silvia replacement, then it would explain the age of both victims, but as you said, he would have been a child himself forty years ago. If Caroline was close to perfect, but her behaviour disappointed him, he could well attribute it to her age and adapt his mindset. None of us can reinvent the past, at least not exactly.’
‘So what happens when he chooses his next victim?’
‘He may have chosen her already.’
‘Why do you say that?’
‘He repeats, takes comfort in the familiar. Remember the locations of both girls. He didn’t move far. He’s a creature of habit, likes to stay within set territories, doesn’t want to move far away from home. Jessica may be right about him being local, but he uses a car. Statistically, serial killers with vehicles travel six times as far as those who get to their victims on foot. He’s working out of Dublin, but he could be anywhere in that geographical area. The point is, his scope is nevertheless restricted. As I say, he stays close to home. His next victim will already be known to him. She might have slipped under the radar before this, but now his needs are changing, she’ll become more important to him.’
‘And his selection process?’
‘She’ll have done something to get his attention, a reason for his admiration.’
‘When will he make his move?’
‘When he is good and ready, or when he is pushed.’
‘What then?’
‘Assuming she doesn’t play ball, he will lose it. His temper will flare up again, only the next time, his disappointment will be even greater, because next time, he has nowhere else to turn.’
‘And?’
‘And it will be everyone else’s fault except his; he won’t internalise blame, he isn’t capable of it. The victim, whoever she turns out to be, will suffer, as will anyone unlucky enough to be with her.’
Beachfield Caravan Park
Sunday, 9 October 2011, 3.40 p.m.