Rigney nodded. “Yes, all right.”
“We would blame the Conclave, refuse its denials, assume it was behind Equilibrium all along,” Egan said. “We’d go to war with the Conclave. And we’d be defeated.”
“Inevitably, yes,” Abumwe said. “We are far too small to take it on directly. And even if all the colony worlds stopped fighting us for independence—or we crushed all their attempts at independence—it would still take us time to fully convert to the colonies being the well from which we draw our soldiers. And meanwhile elements of the Conclave would be agitating for our destruction, because whether the Conclave attacked us or not, we would now be a clear and present danger to it.”
“We’d lose in a fight with the Conclave,” I said. “But that doesn’t mean the Conclave would win.”
Abumwe nodded. “It wouldn’t simply be about us attacking the Conclave. It would be the internal stresses the Conclave would face in being obliged to obliterate us permanently. It goes against every reason the Conclave was founded in the first place. It would be antithetical to the goals of General Gau.”
“Not to mention that of the Conclave’s current leader, Hafte Sorvalh,” I said. “And she would be criticized relentlessly if she refused to deal with us. And no matter how capable she is—and she’s very capable—she’s not General Gau. She won’t be able to keep the Conclave together through her own sheer force of will like the general could. It will fracture and die.”
“Which is Equilibrium’s ultimate goal,” Egan said.
“Yes,” Abumwe said. “Again, our destruction is part of its plan, too. But we are mostly incidental. We are the lever Equilibrium will use to destroy the Conclave. Everything the organization has ever done, including the destruction of Earth Station, has been part of the drive toward that goal.”
“I don’t know how I feel about the complete destruction of the Colonial Union being a side benefit,” Rigney said.
“It should make you angry,” Abumwe said. “It makes me angry.”
“You don’t look notably angry,” Rigney observed.
“Colonel Rigney, I’m furious,” Abumwe said. “I also recognize that there are more important things for me to be and do than just be furious.”
“Ambassador, a question,” Egan said.
“Yes, Colonel.”
Egan pointed to the graphic. “We know Equilibrium’s plan now. We know that it plans to use our colonies and our standard responses against us. We know it plans to frame the Conclave for the attack on Earth. We know its game, its strategy, and its tactics. Isn’t this now a trap we can easily step out of?”
Abumwe looked over to me. “There are other complications,” I said. “Tvann suggested to me that if it became clear the Khartoum strategy failed or that we had thwarted their plans with the other nine planets or informed the Conclave of the subterfuge, that Equilibrium may simply attack Earth anyway.”
“For what purpose?” Egan said.
“Equilibrium doesn’t appear to be fussy,” I said. “It’ll take half a loaf if it can’t get a full one. What I mean by that is right now its optimal plan is to distract the Colonial Union, destroy the Earth, frame the Conclave, and let us destroy each other. But if Equilibrium has to take credit for nuking Earth instead, it will. Because it knows that an obviously weakened Colonial Union, an obviously weakened human race, will still force the Conclave’s hand.”
“You have to appreciate just how many Conclave species hate humans,” Abumwe said. “They hated us before what we did at Roanoke. They hate us even more after it. And some of them blame us for the assassination of General Gau.”
“We had nothing to do with that,” Rigney said.
“But we were there when it happened,” Abumwe said. “We and humans from Earth. That’s enough for many of them.”
“So you’re saying that Equilibrium is perfectly fine going with a ‘Plan B,’” Egan said, bringing the topic back around.
“We’re already on Plan B,” I said. “Plan B went into effect the moment Rafe Daquin stole the Chandler and brought back Secretary Ocampo. This is closer to Plan K. Equilibrium has been very good at improvisation, Colonel. It knows its limits in terms of scale and makes them advantages. Taking credit for killing Earth is not the primary goal but it has its own advantages. It means that it has done something no other entity, no other power has ever dared to do: destroyed the planet that gave the Colonial Union its power. If Equilibrium plays its cards right, it could profit immensely from taking credit for killing Earth. It could gain new members and funding. It could become a legitimate power in itself. It could step out of the shadows it lives in now.”
“No matter what, the Earth is fucked,” Rigney said. “Excuse the language, but that’s the gist of what I’m hearing from you.”
I looked over to Abumwe. “There is another option.”