State of Fear

"It is well known," Balder said, "that I have no sense of humor."

 

"But sea level can't be disputed," Evans said. "It's too simple. You put a mark on a dock at high tide, measure it year after year, watch it go up...I mean, how difficult can it be?"

 

Balder sighed. "You think sea level is simple? Trust me, it's not. Have you ever heard of the geoid? No? The geoid is the equipotential surface of the earth's gravitational field that approximates the mean sea surface. That help you?"

 

Evans shook his head.

 

"Well, it is a core concept in the measurement of sea levels." Balder flipped through the stack of papers in front of him. "How about glacio-hydro-isostatic modeling? Eustatic and tectonic effects on shoreline dynamics? Holocene sedimentary sequences? Intertidal foraminifera distributions? Carbon analysis of coastal paleoenvironments? Aminostratigraphy? No? Not ringing a bell? Let me assure you, sea level is a fiercely debated specialty." He tossed the last of the papers aside. "That's what I'm working through now. But the disputes within the field give added importance to finding an unimpeachable set of data."

 

"And you are obtaining this data?"

 

"Waiting for them to arrive, yes. The Australians have several sets. The French have at least one in Moorea and perhaps another in Papeete. There is a set that was funded by the V. Allen Willy Foundation, but it may be of too short a duration. And other sets as well. We will have to see."

 

The intercom buzzed. The assistant said, "Mr. Balder, it's Mr. Drake on the line, from NERF."

 

"All right." Balder turned to Evans, extended a hand. "Nice talking with you, Mr. Evans. Again, our thanks to George. Tell him any time he wants to have a look around, he can drop by. We are always hard at work here. Good luck to you. Close the door on your way out."

 

Balder turned away, picking up the phone. Evans heard him say, "Well, Nick, what the fuck is going on at NERF? Are you going to fix this for me, or not?"

 

Evans closed the door.

 

He walked out of Balder's office with a sense of nagging unease. Balder was one of the most persuasive men on the planet. He had known Evans was there on behalf of George Morton. He knew Morton was on the verge of making a huge contribution to the lawsuit. Balder should have been totally upbeat, radiating confidence. And he had, indeed, begun that way.

 

I have no doubt we will win this lawsuit.

 

But then, Evans had heard:

 

The challenges are significant.

 

I do not have a single expert witness who can't be turned.

 

This is a case we should bait and switch.

 

This case will hinge on sea-level records.

 

Sea level is a fiercely debated specialty.

 

We will have to see.

 

It certainly wasn't a conversation calculated to raise Evans's level of confidence. Neither, for that matter, was the video session he'd had with Jennifer Haynes, discussing the scientific problems the lawsuit would face.

 

But then, as he considered it, he decided that these expressions of doubt were actually a sign of confidence on the part of the legal team. Evans was an attorney himself; he had come to learn the issues surrounding the trial, and they had been forthright with him. It was a case they would win, even though it would not be easy, because of the complexity of the data and the short attention span of the jury.

 

So: would he recommend that Morton continue?

 

Of course he would.

 

Jennifer was waiting for him outside Balder's office. She said, "They're ready for you back in the conference room."

 

Evans said, "I'm really sorry, I can't. My schedule..."

 

"I understand," she said, "we'll do it another time. I was wondering if your schedule was really tight, or whether there was time for you and me to have lunch."

 

"Oh," Evans said, without missing a beat, "my schedule isn't that tight."

 

"Good," she said.

 

 

 

 

 

CULVER CITY

 

 

TUESDAY, AUGUST 24

 

12:15 P. M.

 

They had lunch in a Mexican restaurant in Culver City. It was quiet. There were a handful of film editors in the corner, from nearby Sony Studios. A couple of high school kids necking. A group of older women in sunhats.

 

They sat in a corner booth and both ordered the special. Evans said, "Balder seems to think the sea-level data is key."

 

"That's what Balder thinks. Frankly, I'm not so sure."

 

"Why is that?"

 

"Nobody's seen all the data. But even if it's high quality, it needs to show a substantial sea-level rise to impress a jury. It may not."

 

"How could it not?" Evans said. "With glaciers melting, and breaking off Antarctica--"

 

"Even so, it may not," she said. "You know the Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean? They were concerned about flooding, so a team of Scandinavian researchers came in to study sea levels. The scientists found no rise in several centuries--and a fall in the last twenty years."