Kenner smiled blandly.
"So now the United States is an international pariah, isolated from the rest of the world and justifiably despised because we failed to sign the Kyoto Protocol to attack a global problem."
She continued to goad him in this way, and finally, it seemed, he had had enough. "Tell me about Kyoto, Ann," he said. "Why should we have signed it?"
"Why? Because we have a moral obligation to join the rest of the civilized world in reducing carbon emissions to below 1990 levels."
"What effect would that treaty have?"
"The whole world knows that. It would reduce global temperatures in the year 2100."
"By how much?"
"I don't know what you're driving at."
"Don't you? The answer is well known. The effect of Kyoto would be to reduce warming by .04 degrees Celsius in the year 2100. Four hundredths of a degree. Do you dispute that outcome?"
"I certainly do. Four what? Hundredths of a degree? That's ridiculous."
"So you don't believe that would be the effect of the Kyoto Protocol?"
"Well, maybe because the United States didn't sign it--"
"No, that would be the effect if wedid sign it. Four hundredths of a degree."
"No," she said, shaking her head. "I don't believe that's true."
"The figure has been published a number of times in scientific journals. I can give you the references."*
Raising his glass, Bradley said to Ann, "This guy is real big on references."
"As opposed to rhetoric," Kenner said, nodding. "Yes. I am."
Bradley belched. "Four hundredths of a degree? In a hundred years? What a bunch of bullshit."
"One could say so."
"I just did," Bradley said.
"But Kyoto's a first step," Ann said, "that's the point. Because if you believe in the precautionary principle, as I do--"
"I didn't think the purpose of Kyoto was to take a first step," Kenner said. "I thought the purpose was to reduce global warming."
"Well, it is."
"Then why make a treaty that won't accomplish that? That won't, in effect, do anything at all?"
"It's a first step, as I said."
"Tell me: do you think it'spossible to reduce carbon dioxide?"
"Of course. There are a host of alternative energy sources just waiting to be adopted. Wind power, solar, waste, geothermal--"
"Tom Wigley and a panel of seventeen scientists and engineers from around the world made a careful study and concluded it is not possible. Their paper was published inScience. They said there is no known technology capable of reducing carbon emissions, or even holding them to levels many times higher than today. They conclude that wind, solar, and even nuclear power will not be sufficient to solve the problem. They say totally new and undiscovered technology is required."*
"That's crazy," Ann said. "Amory Lovins laid it all out twenty years ago. Wind and solar, conservation, energy efficiency. There's no problem."
"Apparently there is. Lovins predicted that thirty-five percent of US power would come from alternative energy by the year 2000. The actual figure turned out to be six percent."
"Not enough subsidies."
"No country in the world produces thirty-five percent renewable energy, Ann."
"But countries like Japan do much better than we do."
Kenner said, "Japan is five percent renewable. Germany is five percent. England two percent."
"Denmark."
"Eight percent."
"Well," she said, "it just means we have more work to do."
"No question about that. Wind farms chop birds to pieces, so they might not be so popular. But solar panels would work. Silent, efficient..."
"Solar is great," she said.
"Yes," Kenner said. "And all we need is about twenty-seven thousand square kilometers of panels to do the job. Just cover the state of Massachusetts with solar panels and we'd be done. Of course by 2050 our energy needs will triple, so maybe New York would be a better choice."
"Or Texas. Nobody I know cares about Texas," Ann said.
"Well, there you are," Kenner said. "Cover ten percent of Texas, and you're in business. Although," he added, "Texans would probably prefer to cover Los Angeles first."
"You're making a joke."
"Not at all. Let's settle on Nevada. It's all desert anyway. But I'm curious to hear about your personal experience with alternative energy. What about you yourself, Ann? Have you adopted alternative sources?"
"Yes. I have solar heating for my swimming pool. The maid drives a hybrid."
"What do you drive?"
"Well, I need a bigger car for the kids."
"How big?"
"Well, I drive an SUV. Sometimes."
"What about your residence? You have solar panels for your electricity?"
"Well, I had consultants come to the house. Only, Jerry--my husband--says it's too expensive to install. But I'm working on him."
"And your appliances..."
"Every single one is Energystar. Every one."
"That's good. And how large is your family?"
"I have two boys. Seven and nine."
"Wonderful. How big is your house?"
"I don't know exactly."
"How many square feet?"