"Maybe, uh, two hundred."
"There are more than that in California.+There are one hundred sixty thousand glaciers in the world, Ted. About sixty-seven thousand have been inventoried, but only a few have been studied with any care. There is mass balance data extending five years or more for only seventy-nine glaciers in the entire world. So, how can you say they're all melting? Nobody knows whether they are or not."++
"Kilimanjaro is melting."
"Why is that?"
"Global warming."
"Actually, Kilimanjaro has been rapidly melting since the 1800s--long before global warming. The loss of the glacier has been a topic of scholarly concern for over a hundred years. And it has always been something of a mystery because, as you know, Kilimanjaro is an equatorial volcano, so it exists in a warm region. Satellite measurements of that region show no warming trend at the altitude of the Kilimanjaro glacier. So why is it melting?"
Sulking: "You tell me."
"Because of deforestation, Ted. The rain forest at the base of the mountain has been cut down, so the air blowing upward is no longer moist. Experts think that if the forest is replanted the glacier will grow again."
"That's bullshit."
"I'll give you the journal references.*Now then--sea-level rise? Was that the next threat you mentioned?"
"Yes."
"Sea level is indeed rising."
"Ah-hah!"
"As it has been for the last six thousand years, ever since the start of the Holocene. Sea level has been rising at the rate of ten to twenty centimeters--that's four to eight inches--every hundred years."+
"But it's rising faster now."
"Actually, not."
"Satellites prove it."
"Actually, they don't."++
"Computer models prove it's rising faster."SS
"Computer models can'tprove anything, Ted. A prediction can't ever be proof--it hasn't happened yet. And computer models have failed to accurately predict the last ten or fifteen years. But if you want to believe in them anyway, there is no arguing with faith. Now, what was next on your list? Extreme weather--again, not true. Numerous studies show there is no increase."*
"Look," Ted said, "you may enjoy putting me down, but the fact is, lots of people think there will be more extreme weather, including more hurricanes and tornadoes and cyclones, in the future."
"Yes, indeed, lots of people think so. But scientific studies do not bear them out.+That's why wedo science, Ted, to see if our opinions can be verified in the real world, or whether we are just having fantasies."
"All these hurricanes are not fantasies."
Kenner sighed. He flipped open his laptop.
"What are you doing?"
"One moment," Kenner said. "Let me bring it up."
US Hurricane Strikes by Decade 1900-2004
"Here is the actual data, Ted," Kenner said. "US hurricane strikes over the last hundred years are clearly not increasing. And similarly, extreme weather is not more frequent globally. The data simply do not agree with you. Now, you also mentioned El Nino events."
"Yes..."
"As you know, El Nino is a global weather pattern that begins when ocean temperatures along the west coast of South America remain above normal for several months. Once it's triggered, El Nino lasts about a year and a half, affecting weather around the world. El Nino occurs roughly every four years--twenty-three times in the last century. And it has been occurring for thousands of years. So it long precedes any claim of global warming.*But what threat does El Nino represent to the US, Ted? There was a major El Nino in 1998."
"Floods, crops ruined, like that."
"All that happened. But the net economic effect of the last El Nino was a gain of fifteen billion dollars because of a longer growing season and less use of winter heating oil. That's after deducting $1.5 billion for flooding and excess rain in California. Still a net benefit."
"I'd like to see that study," Bradley said.
"I'll make sure you get it.+Because of course it also suggests that if global warming really does occur, it will probably benefit most nations of the world."
"But notall. "
"No, Ted. Not all."
"So what exactly is your point?" Bradley said. "You're saying that we don't need to pay any attention to the environment, that we can just leave it alone and let industry pollute and everything will be hunkydory?"
For a [moment, it looked to Sarah as if Kenner would get angry, but he did not. He said, "If you oppose the death penalty, does it also mean you are in favor of doing nothing at all about crime?"
"No," Ted said.
"You can oppose the death penalty but still favor punishing criminals."
"Yes. Of course."
"Then I can say that global warming is not a threat but still favor environmental controls, can't I?"
"But it doesn't sound like you are saying that."
Kenner sighed.