Pebble In The Sky

15. The Odds That Vanished
Arvardan and Shekt met in a back room on the second story of the house, with the windows carefully polarized to complete opaqueness. Pola was downstairs, alert and sharp-eyed in the armchair from which she watched the dark and empty street.

Shekt's stooped figure wore somehow an air different from that which Arvardan had observed some ten hours previously. The physicist's face was still haggard, and infinitely weary, but where previously it had seemed uncertain and timorous, it now bore an almost desperate defiance.

"Dr. Arvardan," he said, and his voice was firm, "I must apologize for my treatment of you in the morning. I had hoped you would understand-"

"I must admit I didn't, sir, but I believe I do now."

Shekt seated himself at the table and gestured toward the bottle of wine. Arvardan waved his hand in a deprecating motion. "If you don't mind, I'll have some of the fruit instead...What is this? I don't think I've ever seen anything like it."

"It's a kind of orange," said Shekt. "I don't believe it grows outside Earth. The rind comes off easily." He demonstrated, and Arvardan, after sniffing at it curiously, sank his teeth into the winy pulp. He came up with an exclamation.

"Why, this is delightful, Dr. Shekt! Has Earth ever tried to export these objects?"

"The Ancients," said the biophysicist grimly, "are not fond of trading with the Outside. Nor are our neighbors in space fond of trading with us. It is but an aspect of our difficulties here."

Arvardan felt a sudden spasm of annoyance seize him. "That is the most stupid thing yet. I tell you that I could despair of human intelligence when I see what can exist in men's minds."

Shekt shrugged with the tolerance of lifelong use. "It is part of the nearly insoluble problem of anti-Terrestrianism, I fear."

"But what makes it so nearly insoluble," exclaimed the archaeologist, "is that no one seems to really want a solution! How many Earthmen respond to the situation by hating all Galactic citizens indiscriminately? It is an almost universal disease-hate for hate. Do your people really want equality, mutual tolerance? No! Most of them want only their own turn as top dog."

"Perhaps there is much in what you say," said Shekt sadly. "I cannot deny it. But that is not the whole story. Give us but the chance, and a new generation of Earthmen would grow to maturity, lacking insularity and believing wholeheartedly in the oneness of Man. The Assimilationists, with their tolerance and belief in wholesome compromise, have more than once been a power on Earth. I am one. Or, at least, I was one once. But the Zealots rule all Earth now. They are the extreme nationalists, with their dreams of past rule and future rule. It is against them that the Empire must be protected."

Arvardan frowned. "You refer to the revolt Pola spoke of?"

"Dr. Arvardan," Shekt said grimly, "it's not too easy a job to convince anyone of such an apparently ridiculous possibility as Earth conquering the Galaxy, but it's true. I am not physically brave, and I am most anxious to live. You can imagine, then, the immense crisis that must now exist to force me to run the risk of committing treason with the eye of the local administration already upon me."

"Well," said Arvardan, "if it is that serious, I had better tell you one thing immediately. I will help you all I can, but only in my own capacity as a Galactic citizen. I have no official standing here, nor have I any particular influence at the Court or even at the Procurator's Palace. I am exactly what I seem to be-an archaeologist on a scientific expedition which involves only my own interests. Since you are prepared to risk treason, hadn't you better see the Procurator about this? He could really do something."

"That is exactly what I cannot do, Dr. Arvardan. It is that very contingency against which the Ancients guard me. When you came to my house this morning I even thought you might be a go-between. I thought that Ennius suspected."

"He may suspect-I cannot answer for that. But I am not a go-between. I'm sorry. If you insist on making me your confidant, I can promise to see him for you."

"Thank you. It is all I ask. That-and to use your good offices to intercede for Earth against too strong a reprisal."

"Of course." Arvardan was uneasy. At the moment he was convinced that he was dealing with an elderly and eccentric paranoiac, perhaps harmless, but thoroughly cracked. Yet he had no choice but to remain, to listen, and to try to smooth over the gentle insanity-for Pola's sake.

Shekt said, "Dr. Arvardan, you have heard of the Synapsifier? You said so this morning."

"Yes, I did. I read your original article in Physical Reviews. I discussed the instrument with the Procurator and with the High Minister."

"With the High Minister?"

"Why, certainly. When I obtained the letter of introduction that you-uh-refused to see, I'm afraid."

"I'm sorry for that. But I wish you had not-What is the extent of your knowledge concerning the Synapsifier?"

"That it is an interesting failure. It is designed to improve learning capacity. It has succeeded to some extent on rats, but has failed on human beings."

Shekt was chagrined. "Yes, you could think nothing else from that article. It was publicized as a failure, and the eminently successful results have been suppressed, deliberately."

"Hmp. A rather unusual display of scientific ethics, Dr. Shekt."

"I admit it. But I am fifty-six, sir, and if you know anything of the customs of Earth, you know that I haven't long to live."

"The Sixty. Yes, I have heard of it-more than I would have liked, in fact." And he thought wryly of that first trip on a Terrestrian stratoliner. "Exceptions are made for noted scientists, among others, I have heard."

"Certainly. But it is the High Minister and the Council of Ancients who decide on that, and there is no appeal from their decisions, even to the Emperor. I was told that the price of life was secrecy concerning the Synapsifier and hard work for its improvement." The older man spread his hands helplessly. "Could I know then of the outcome, of the use to which the machine would be put?"

"And the use?" Arvardan extracted a cigarette from his shirt-pocket case and offered one to the other, which was refused.

"If you'll wait a moment-One by one, after my experiments had reached the point where I felt the instrument might be safely applied to human beings, certain of Earth's biologists were treated. In each case they were men I knew to be in sympathy with the Zealots-the extremists, that is. They all survived, though secondary effects made themselves shown after a time. One of them was brought back for treatment eventually. I could not save him. But, in his dying delirium, I found out."

It was close upon midnight. The day had been long and much had happened. But now something stirred within Arvardan. He said tightly, "I wish you'd get to the point."

Shekt said, "I beg your patience. I must explain thoroughly, if you're to believe me. You, of course, know of Earth's peculiar environment-its radioactivity-"

"Yes, I have a fair knowledge of the matter."

"And of the effect of this radioactivity upon Earth and its economy?"

"Yes."

"Then I won't belabor the point. I need only say that the incidence of mutation on Earth is greater than in the rest of the Galaxy. The idea of our enemies that Earthmen are different thus has a certain basis of physical truth. To be sure, the mutations are minor, and most possess no survival value. If any permanent change has occurred in Earthmen, it is only in some aspects of their internal chemistry which enables them to display greater resistance to their own particular environment. Thus they show greater resistance to radiation effects, more rapid healing of burned tissues-"

"Dr. Shekt, I am acquainted with all you say."

"Then has it ever occurred to you that these mutational processes occur in living species on Earth other than human?"

There was a short silence, and then Arvardan said, "Why, no, it hasn't, though, of course, it is quite inevitable, now that you mention it."

"That is so. It happens. Our domestic animals exist in greater variety than on any other inhabited world. The orange you ate is a mutated variety, which exists nowhere else. It is this, among other things, which makes the orange so unacceptable for export. Outsiders suspect it as they suspect us-and we ourselves guard it as a valuable property peculiar to ourselves. And of course what applies to animals and plants applies also to microscopic life."

And now, indeed, Arvardan felt the thin pang of fear enter.

He said, "You mean-bacteria?"

"I mean the whole domain of primitive life. Protozoa, bacteria, and the self-reproducing proteins that some people call viruses. "

"And what are you getting at?"

"I think you have a notion of that, Dr. Arvardan. You seem suddenly interested. You see, there is a belief among your people that Earthmen are bringers of death, that to associate with an Earthman is to die, that Earthmen are the bearers of misfortune, possess a sort of evil eye-"

"I know all that. It is merely superstition."

"Not entirely. That is the dreadful part. Like all common beliefs, however superstitious, distorted, and perverted, it has a speck of truth at bottom. Sometimes, you see, an Earthman carries Within his body some mutated form of microscopic parasite which is not quite like any known elsewhere, and to which, sometimes, Outsiders are not particularly resistant. What follows is simple biology, Dr. Arvardan. "

Arvardan was silent.

Shekt went on, "We are caught sometimes, too, of course. A new species of germ will make its way out of the radioactive mists and an epidemic will sweep the planet, but, by and large, Earthmen have kept pace. For each variety of germ and virus, we build our defense over the generations, and we survive. Outsiders don't have the opportunity."

"Do you mean," said Arvardan with a strangely faint sensation, "that contact with you now-" He pushed his chair back. He was thinking of the evening's kisses.

Shekt shook his head. "Of course not. We don't create the disease; we merely carry it. And even such carriage occurs very rarely. If I lived on your world, I would no more carry the germ than you would; I have no special affinity for it. Even here it is only one out of every quadrillion germs, or one out of every quadrillion of quadrillions, that is dangerous. The chances of your infection right now are less than that of a meteorite penetrating the roof of this house and hitting you. Unless the germs in question are deliberately searched for, isolated, and concentrated."

Again a silence, longer this time. Arvardan said in a queer, strangled voice, "Have Earthmen been doing that?"

He had stopped thinking in terms of paranoia. He was ready to believe.

"Yes. But for innocent reasons, at first. Our biologists are, of course, particularly interested in the peculiarities of Earth life, and, recently, isolated the virus of Common Fever."

"What is Common Fever?"

"A mild endemic disease on Earth. That is, it is always with us. Most Earthmen have it in their childhood, and its symptoms are not very severe. A mild fever, a transitory rash, and inflammation of the joints and of the lips, combined with an annoying thirst. It runs its course in four to six days, and the subject is thereafter immune. I've had it. Pola has had it. Occasionally there is a more virulent form of this same disease-a slightly different strain of virus is concerned, presumably-and then it is called Radiation Fever."

"Radiation Fever. I've heard of it," said Arvardan.

"Oh, really? It is called Radiation Fever because of the mistaken notion that it is caught after exposure to radioactive areas. Actually, exposure to radioactive areas is often followed by Radiation Fever, because it is in those areas that the virus is most apt to mutate to dangerous forms. But it is the virus and not the radiation which does it. In the case of Radiation Fever, symptoms develop in a matter of two hours. The lips are so badly affected that the subject can scarcely talk, and he may be dead in a matter of days.

"Now, Dr. Arvardan, this is the crucial point. The Earthman has adapted himself to Common Fever and the Outsider has not. Occasionally a member of the Imperial garrison is exposed to it, and, in that case, he reacts to it as an Earthman would to Radiation Fever. Usually he dies within twelve hours. He is then burned-by Earthmen-since any other soldier approaching also dies.

"The virus, as I say, was isolated ten years ago. It is a nucleoprotein, as are most filtrable viruses, which, however, possesses the remarkable property of containing an unusually high concentration of radioactive carbon, sulphur, and phosphorus. When I say unusually high I mean that fifty per cent of its carbon, sulphur, and phosphorus is radioactive. It is supposed that the effects of the organism on its host is largely that of its radiations, rather than of its toxins. Naturally it would seem logical that Earthmen, who are adapted to gamma radiations, are only slightly affected. Original research in the virus centered at first about the method whereby it concentrated its radioactive isotopes. As you know, no chemical means can separate isotopes except through very long and tedious procedures. Nor is any organism other than this virus known which can do so. But then the direction of research changed.

"I'll be short, Dr. Arvardan. I think you see the rest. Experiments might be conducted on animals from outside Earth, but not on Outsiders themselves. The numbers of Outsiders on Earth were too few to allow several to disappear without notice. Nor could premature discovery of their plans be allowed. So it was a group of bacteriologists that was sent to the Synapsifier.. to return with insights enormously developed. It was they who developed a new mathematical attack on protein chemistry and on immunology, which enabled them finally to develop an artificial strain of virus that was designed to affect Galactic human beings-Outsiders-only. Tons of the crystallized virus now exist."

Arvardan was haggard. He felt the drops of perspiration glide sluggishly down his temple and cheek.

"Then you are telling me," he gasped, "that Earth intends to set loose this virus on the Galaxy; that they will initiate a gigantic bacteriological warfare-"

"Which we cannot lose and you cannot win. Exactly. Once the epidemic starts, millions will die each day, and nothing will stop it. Frightened refugees fleeing across space will carry the virus with them, and if you attempt to blow up entire planets, the disease can be started again in new centers. There will be no reason to connect the matter with Earth. By the time our own survival becomes suspicious, the ravages will have progessed so far, the despair of the Outsiders will be so deep, that nothing will matter to them."

"And all will die?" The appalling horror did not penetrate-could not.

"Perhaps not. Our new science of bacteriology works both ways. We have the antitoxin as well, and the means of production thereof. It might be used in case of early surrender. Then there may be some out-of-the-way eddies of the Galaxy that could escape, or even a few cases of natural immunity."

In the horrible blankness that followed-during which Arvardan never thought of doubting the truth of what he had heard, the horrible truth which at a stroke wiped out the odds of twenty-five billion to one-Shekt's voice was small and tired.

"It is not Earth that is doing this. A handful of leaders, perverted by the gigantic pressure that excluded them from the Galaxy, hating those who keep them outside, wanting to strike back at any cost, and with insane intensity- Once they have begun, the rest of Earth must follow. What can it do? In its tremendous guilt, it will have to finish what it started. Could it allow enough of the Galaxy to survive and thus risk a later punishment?

"Yet before I am an Earthman, I am a man. Must trillions die for the sake of millions? Must a civilization spreading over a Galaxy crumble for the sake of the resentment, however justified, of a single planet? And will we be better off for all that? The power in the Galaxy will reside still on those worlds with the necessary resources-and we have none. Earthmen may even rule at Trantor for a generation, but their children will become Trantorians, and in their turn will look down upon the remnant on Earth.

"And besides, is there an advantage to Humanity to exchange the tyranny of a Galaxy for the tyranny of Earth? No-no-There must be a way out for all men, a way to justice and freedom."

His hands stole to his face, and behind their gnarled fingers he rocked gently to and fro.

Arvardan had heard all this in a numbed haze. He mumbled, "There is no treason in what you have done, Dr. Shekt. I will go to Everest immediately. The Procurator will believe me. He must believe me."

There was the sound of running footsteps, the flash of a frightened face into the room, the door left swinging open.

"Father-Men are coming up the walk."

Dr. Shekt went gray. "Quickly, Dr. Arvardan, through the garage." He was pushing violently. "Take Pola, and don't worry about me. I'll hold them back."

But a man in a green robe waited for them as they turned. He wore a thin smile and carried, with a casual ease, a neuronic whip. There was a thunder of fists at the main door, a crash, and the sound of pounding feet.

"Who are you?" demanded Arvardan in a feeble defiance of the armed green-robe. He had stepped before Pola.

"I?" said Green-robe harshly. "I am merely the humble Secretary of His Excellency, the High Minister." He advanced. "I almost waited too long. But not quite. Hmm, a girl, too. Injudicious-"

Arvardan said evenly, "I am a Galactic citizen, and I dispute your right to detain me-or, for that matter, to enter this house-without legal authority."

"I"-and the Secretary tapped his chest gently with his free hand-"am all the right and authority on this planet. Within a short time I will be all the right and authority on the Galaxy. We have all of you, you know-even Schwartz."

"Schwartz!" cried Dr. Shekt and Pola, nearly together.

"You are surprised? Come, I will bring you to him."

The last thing Arvardan was conscious of was that smile, expanding-and the flash of the whip. He toppled through a crimson sear of pain into unconsciousness.